The Long Impacts of a Short War: From the Strait of Hormuz to the MAGA Coalition

Whether or not the fragile ceasefire with Iran holds, the consequences of President Trump's incursion are significant and likely long-lasting. Tehran has militarized the crucial Strait of Hormuz, leading to energy shortages across the Persian Gulf, Asia, and Europe that may persist for years, with forced rationing and sustained inflation. The Gulf region has suffered long-term damage to its infrastructure, threatening a vital area for newcomers and tourists, while bombs continue to fall on Lebanon. U.S. allies are angry and, where possible, looking for new alternatives. While the U.S. and Israel have largely destroyed Iran's air force and navy, few of Mr. Trump's other goals appear to have been realized, including a definitive end to Iran's nuclear stockpile. Meanwhile, there is growing evidence that his political base has fractured.

Featuring Paul Poast, Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science; Jason Furman, former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers and Aetna Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at Harvard Kennedy School; Mark Mazzetti, Washington correspondent for The New York Times; and Jim Krane, Diana Tamari Sabbagh Fellow in Middle East Energy Studies and co-director of the Middle East Energy Roundtable at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. Moderated by Jennifer Steinhauer, IOP senior director. Light snacks and refreshments served.

*Mark Mazzetti, Jim Krane, and Jason Furman will participate virtually.

In-person attendance for this event is open to current UChicago students only. If you are not a current student, you can tune in on our Youtube channel.

Thursday, April 16 2026

IOP Living Room

3:30 - 4:30